Bring your brand and payments — we ship the prediction-market engine. See admin + trade live today.
A complete prediction-market platform you put your own brand on: LMSR that always quotes, escrow that provably covers every payout, two-step resolution, an admin console and five languages — running today.
Escrow and wallets are ledger accounting inside your deployment. Real money stays with your payment provider; Predicto never holds it.
- Open demo — no sales gate
- No custody of real funds
- We don’t operate your book
- 5
- languages
- 2%
- fee on profit · owner-set
- 0
- insolvent states
Will the ECB cut its deposit rate at the next meeting?
- Escrow
- $533.83
- Max owed
- $330.00
- Headroom
- $203.83
Real engine. Pick an operator, take a side, try to break the escrow.
Trade and admin, running today.
Running today on demo.predicto.market — open demo, no sales gate.
There is always a price, and always a counterparty.
Ship a prediction market, not a maths problem. An order book needs traders on both sides before it can quote anything, which is exactly what a new market does not have. Predicto prices against a logarithmic market scoring rule instead: a formula, always willing to trade, at a price that is the market's own probability.
The price is the probability
A YES share pays 100¢ if it happens and nothing if it does not, so its price is what the market thinks the odds are. No conversion, no separate feed — the number a trader reads is the forecast.
The creator's subsidy is the depth
Whoever opens a market locks a liquidity subsidy. It sets how much trading the market absorbs before the price moves, and it is simultaneously the most that creator can lose. One number, two jobs, no abstract knob to tune.
Rounding always favours the market
Buys round up and sells round down, to the cent. A half-cent conceded on every trade is a half-cent the market cannot pay back later, so the direction is part of the solvency argument rather than a detail.
C(q) = b · ln( e^(qYes/b) + e^(qNo/b) )- b
- subsidy ÷ ln 2 — the depth, and the loss cap
- cost
- C(after) − C(before), rounded up
- price
- ∂C/∂qYes — a sigmoid, never 0 or 100
Evaluated with a log-sum-exp shift, because the naive form overflows once the exponent passes ~709 — reachable on a thin market after a few large trades.
The market cannot owe more than it holds.
Not a policy, a reserve ratio or a monitoring alert. It falls out of the arithmetic: every trade adds at least as much to escrow as it adds to the maximum possible payout, and the market opens with the two exactly equal.
The market is funded to exactly its own cost function at zero shares outstanding. Nothing is owed yet.
The cost charged for shares is never less than the liability they create. The gap can only widen.
Winners are paid 100¢ a share and the remainder returns to the creator. The remainder is never negative.
The invariant is asserted after every step of 200 randomised 40-trade sequences, alongside an end-to-end suite that reconciles every wallet against its ledger.
Six states, and one of them needs a second pair of hands.
Resolution is where a prediction market is won or lost as a product. Creators propose, your admins finalize, full audit trail.
- 01
Open
A creator opens a question, sets how it will be judged, and locks a liquidity subsidy. The subsidy is debited in the same transaction that creates the market.
- 02
Trade
Buys and sells price against the market maker. Creators cannot trade their own market; administrators cannot hold a position at all.
- 03
Close
Trading stops at the close time. The clock is checked on every trade, so a late order is refused whether or not any sweep has run.
- 04
Propose
The creator names the outcome and links their evidence. They propose; they do not decide.
- 05
Confirm
An administrator confirms or overrides — and never on a market they opened themselves, because the creator keeps whatever escrow is left.
- 06
Pay
Winners are paid 100¢ a share, the fee — at whatever rate the platform owner sets — is taken on profit only, and the remainder returns to the creator. Escrow lands on exactly zero.
A board that fills itself.
Data feeds open markets for you and bring back the result. Your team reviews instead of typing questions in by hand.
Football fixtures
Upcoming fixtures become markets on their own, close at kick-off, and come back with the result and a link to the source for an admin to confirm. Premier League on the demo; other competitions are a config line.
Hourly up or down
BTC, ETH and SOL every hour on the UTC clock: did the price close at or above where the hour opened? Settled automatically from the published Binance candle, which anyone can re-check.
The parts nobody demos, already built.
The market maker is the interesting problem. The reason launches slip is everything around it — the admin tooling, the money plumbing, the second language, the empty states.
Admin consoleIn demo
Five tabs: a resolution desk, an upcoming-resolutions calendar, a user directory, a platform-wide transaction feed, and promotions. Regular users can neither see it nor call it.
Wallets and ledgerIn demo
Play-money in the demo. Every movement writes a signed, append-only ledger row in the same transaction. A balance is exactly the sum of its entries, and a test proves it.
Promotions engineIn demo
Signup credit, deposit bonuses (flat or percentage) and two-sided referrals. Promotional credit is spendable but never withdrawable. All ship switched off.
Portfolio and P&LIn demo
Open positions marked to the live price, realised P&L on exits, and settled positions marked at what they actually paid rather than a stale quote.
Five languagesIn demo
English, German, Spanish, French and Russian, detected from the browser and switchable. Money stays in one currency format so the wallet and the market always agree.
Dark and lightIn demo
Both themes are first-class and the choice survives a reload. YES and NO keep their meaning in either, and platform-side surfaces wear a colour no market side ever does.
Your brand
Your logo, colours and domain across the whole desk. Traders see your name; Predicto stays infrastructure.
No custody of real funds
Money moves through your payment provider via an adapter. Predicto never holds participant funds; the demo is play-money.
Your KYC / geo
Plug in the identity and geolocation checks your jurisdictions already require. You own the participants.
Immutable ledger
The append-only ledger doubles as your compliance artifact — every balance reconstructable from its entries.
Built to pass an audit from day one.
A prediction market handles other people's money. These protections are built into the core of the platform, so no future change can quietly switch them off.
- Every cent adds up
- Balances are kept in exact whole cents, never approximations, so the books always reconcile to the cent.
- No balance can go negative
- Funds are checked at the exact moment of every payment, so two purchases at the same instant can never spend the same money twice.
- History can't be rewritten
- Every money movement is recorded permanently. Mistakes are fixed with a new correcting entry, never by editing the past.
- Actions only come from your site
- The platform accepts account actions only when they come from your own website, blocking attacks that trick a signed-in user from somewhere else.
- Password guessing is slowed down
- Repeated failed sign-ins are limited per connection and per account, with a brief automatic lockout.
- Stolen logins don't last
- Signing in ends every other session on the account, so a hijacked login stops working the moment the real owner comes back.
A desk of its own, or a module in yours.
Standalone
A full branded prediction-market desk on your domain: your theme, your markets, your ops console.
Add-on module
Embed markets into an existing sportsbook or iGaming stack through a markets widget and auth handoff, so your players never leave your product.
Four steps from first call to your own desk.
- 01
Consult
Fit, market types, and the money and KYC adapters you need.
- 02
Setup
Branding and market parameters — configuration, not code.
- 03
Integrate / test
PSP and KYC hooks wired up on a staging desk.
- 04
Go live
Production, owned and operated by you.
- Multi-brand sportsbooks adding event markets
- iGaming groups expanding product surface
- Regulated venues wanting own-brand markets
Put your name on it.
The demo runs the same build you would launch on. Open it, trade a market, resolve one from the admin console — then tell us what your version needs to look like.